Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Friends

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“Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more (Henry V, Act III, Scene I).

As two Conservative women, Smart and I felt we should add our opinion into the Internet mix regarding tomorrow’s congressional elections. The first point I would like to make is that the Main Stream Media has been working diligently to depress the votes of Conservatives/Republicans. Via the Anchoress is this wonderful analysis of the Newsweek poll piffle from Sensible Mom:

As a media observer, and wary of polls put forth early and often from elite media eggheads, I reprint Sensible Mom’s analysis in full:

Newsweek’s latest headline based upon its most recent poll is that republicans are losing any momentum they built over the last few weeks. Besides a potential problem with using a general poll to extrapolate trends in individual races, the poll data shows an odd movement among independents. Here are the four most recent polls Newsweek has conducted (they are also available at PR Newswire if you type Newsweek into its search function).

In the most recent poll, the percentage of republicans interviewed increased as well as the percentage of republicans voting for republicans, so I wondered what would be dragging the republican numbers down in comparison to Newsweek’s prior polls.

What I found was that in the most recent poll independents’ preferences were broken down this way:

% voting for or leaning republican: 26%
% voting for or leaning democrat: 51%
% undecided: 23%

Compare that to the previous poll where the percentages were 34%, 39% and 27%, respectively, and you have the explanation for the “loss of momentum” as referred to by Newsweek.

I decided to compare Newsweek’s breakdown of independents’ voting preferences to the Washington Post polls conducted each day for a month prior to the 2004 Presidential election.

In the very worst case for Bush/Cheney, independents favored Kerry/Edwards by 15 percentage points with only 5% undecided. In Newsweek’s most recent poll, there’s a 25 percentage point variance with 23% undecided.

Now it could be that independents have become that opposed to republicans in the past week, but a 20 percentage point swing in one week seems extreme Also, I would have expected to see significantly fewer undecided independents than in prior Newsweek polls, as well, if that trend was really happening.

Over the last month the percentage point difference between independents choosing democrats and those choosing republicans has changed from 15 percentage points (10/6/06), to 10 percentage points (10/20/06), to 5 percentage points (10/28/06) and now to 20 25 percentage points – that seems like an anomaly more than a trend.

Newsweek should have dug a little deeper into their numbers to make sure that its poll passed the smell test. The number could be right, but if I were Newsweek, I would have asked my pollster to conduct another for comparison purposes before publishing the results.

Update (6:35 p.m.): Others: The Anchoress, Riehl World View, Big Lizards. AJ Strata reminds readers that respondents “when asked whether they will support their current congressman or not, it is 2-1 for the incumbents – meaning it is nearly opposite the generic question’s results.”

Update (11/5 10:33 a.m.): The Washington Post poll shows a completely different result, with its generic poll showing a preference between republicans and democrats differing by only 6 percentage points.

If you look at the detail of the WAPO poll, it has more republican than democrat respondents among likely voters while among registered voters there are more democrats than republicans.

AJ Strata noticed the WAPO poll, too, and also reports that ACORN is trying its hardest to offset the republicans’ momentum by filing fraudulent voter registration forms.

Update (10:52 a.m.): It is to laugh. Now MSNBC, momma of Newsweek, is acknowledging that the individual races are tightening up. They think they can have it both ways – the republicans are losing momentum at the same time the races are tightening. Hmmm. How does that happen? It happens when the media with its limited math curiosity use polls that appear to fit their mindset to frame issues. Generic polls aren’t predictors of individual races, particularly ones with badly skewed data.

Sensible Mom has the source documentation, and her thorough review is one with which I fully concur. This leads us to our main point of today’s post:

The only poll that counts is the one after the election tomorrow — so vote, vote vote!!!

And don’t listen to exit poll results, either (remember in 2004 that, based on the early results, John Kerry was winning the election by a landslide).

Smart thinks that the US House of Representatives will go to the Democrats. I assert that the Mainstream Media has so misread and miscalculated, that Republicans will prevail in contested races. She and I both hold good hope the US Senate will remain Republican.

But we both will vote. As a California Republican, I will await the results and hope the party does well in other states so that I can savor some form of success. Frankly, my prayers will be that Michael Steel, the outstanding senatorial candidate in Maryland, will be victorious. It is the one contest that truly has held my interest this year.

Once more unto the breach — then get ready for the 2008 extravaganza!

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3 Responses to “Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Friends”

  1. Befupsels Says:

    Lots of people write about this matter but you wrote down really true words!

  2. Yolonda Puleio Says:

    I have seen some crappy posts but this one really impresses me. Good work.

  3. city|business|lawer|shops|jokes|jobs|chemist|doctors|education|furnitute|gas| books shops|temples|readmadymgarment|packer|hospitals|gifts Says:

    city|business|lawer|shops|jokes|jobs|chemist|doctors|education|furnitute|gas| books shops|temples|readmadymgarment|packer|hospitals|gifts…

    […]Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Friends « Smart and Final Isis[…]…

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